The Disgusted voter in the '22 midterm
Usually independent undecided and very pragmatic
Everyone knows about the angry voter. They dominate the political discussion on the internet. The disgusted voter is in the shadows and only becomes apparent after the vote. But we know their tendencies. They are not middle-of-the-road voters; they usually favor one side or the other, though not exclusively. Neither are they single-issue voters because, over time, they adapt and will vote depending on the landscape rather than as a single-issue voter. This group is growing too.
The disgusted voters think about what’s best for them/society in terms of what they perceive as the dynamics of the political arena and try to vote in a way that moves it toward how they think problems should be solved.
See where I am going here yet? These are the voters who elect Republican governors in Democratic trifecta states. They see the problem of one-party rule and try and rectify it by making them work together. Again, like parents. “Figure it out together,” they shout, leaving the scene. They are skeptical (from experience) that any of the solutions to the problems will otherwise emerge. Plus, everyone sees the amount of corruption and stagnation that inevitably comes with one-party rule. This goes both ways, especially at the State level.
So, for instance, if a State has one party in control of the legislature, if given the opportunity, the disgusted voter will vote for the other party to be the Governor. Just to force them to work it out. This dynamic not only explains why New England has Republican Governors still but also why Democrats are competitive for Governor in Kansas and Oklahoma. Corruption is a symptom, and the perceived problem is accountability.
I mentioned that this election has been baked for some time in favor of the Republicans in my last post. And there are signs that it is actually getting worse for Dems too.
“While I would want to support the right for a woman to choose, I also want to support our economy getting better, because it’s not right now,” Ms. Hackworth said, adding later: “Give the Republicans a chance in Congress. See what they can do.”
Some 48% of voters said they thought congressional Republicans were best able to get inflation under control—the largest share in Journal polling this year. By comparison, 27% said congressional Democrats were best able to rein in inflation.
This poll comes from the WSJ today. It also explains the voter enthusiasm problem I mentioned in covering the election model I am using:
Here are the crosstabs. Look at the issues tab to see how matters of societal importance are fragmented because we are fragmenting. The internet has broken a lot of things wide open:
Sighhh.... I read that CS piece this morning and left feeling depressed. We have an ever growing population of people who don’t contribute in any way to their own survival and are therefore robbed of the sense of purpose that is essential to living a life of meaning. We have removed all natural consequences for people’s actions which means we enable them to live their lives suspended just above rock bottom: too high to touch the ground, too low to take flight. As bad as it is in Portland I don’t think for a second that any of the people Woodhouse interviewed has the stomach to do what needs to be done to save their city. I actually lol’d when the psychiatrist said things have only gotten worse since they passed Measure 110. Gee, who would’ve thought that decriminalizing all drugs would lead to more drug abuse and overdoses not less? Places like Portland are long past the point where they can just vote in a new political party to get the change that’s needed to save their city. Honestly, I doubt anything short of a Maoist revolution is going to correct the course.