I have wavered from 246 to 251, so that’s my range. It could be a lot lower, as Democrats finally have given up on House control and started circling their money wagons around incumbents in the 5-15% Democratic CDs. So this could be stuck around 240, with Dems winning about ten contests by a very slight margin.
It shouldn’t matter much; getting control even by a few seats is enough in the tribal-like political landscape. Here is the predictive model I am using, here is the page for the Senate predictions, and here is the page for the Governor predictions.
Larry Sabato has a map that reflects the above covertly. In Larry’s crystal ball, he projects the Republicans with 218 secure (more or less) and 22 tossups with 23 other seats leaning Democrat to work with for an outcome. How do I get from there to the map above? The Republicans win 90% of the toss-ups, which gets this number to about 240. And they win about a third of the contests that lean Democrat combined with 1-3 outlier upsets, and it gets to about 248.
Things that stand out:
A three-seat gain in Oregon for the Republicans
A 3-4 seat gain (or hold an open) by Republicans in each of California, Texas, New York
Alaska is blue due to it having a strange way to tally votes
Republicans sweep New Hampshire
Early Indications to Watch and get an indication for the night:
Kentucky 6th, a Trump +10% contest. If R’s win by:
+ 2- 7% (Evenish) This could be a 50-50 Senate and a gain of seats (~10-15) in the House
+ 10% (Wave) This could be a 52-48 Senate, and 20-25 gained in the House
+ 15% (Tsunami). This could be a 54-46 Senate, and +30 gained in the House
However, Jimmy Dore has an interview with the Democratic challenger, who is not a neocon in bed with the Uniparty’s perma-war. The Democratic Party cut him off as well. So the above is sorta iffy.
The early races to follow being called (and get an indication of the night) are NH’s two CDs, the NJ 2nd and in Virginia, the 2nd, 7th and 10th seats. Republicans taking 4 out of 6 puts the election at a Wave and all 6 at a Tsunami. I expect it will be 5, as the Dems hold the 10th CD in VA.
I mentioned some caveats while discussing the voter model I am using. Also, Republicans had a strong performance in the House elections in 2020 (unforeseen by the polls) that narrowed the Democrat’s 35-seat lead to only 9. The Republican majority of 60 seats.
In ‘23, we can see the investigations begin. The collusion between the government with private corporations like Twitter and Facebook, the corruption of Tony Fauci and Bill Gates, and the end of Phizer and Moderna’s collusion with the regulatory agencies. Out it all.