Predictions for Governor elections for 2022
A significant tsunami at the State level that will set the table for a constitutional convention
The USA has always had tension between its Federal government and the Republic. The States have more leeway than any other place in the world; practically a nation unto itself. This makes the USA still the best free place to live still overall as a nation goes, despite its massive Federal empire faults and financial implosion incoming.
If the Republicans can garner a constitutional convention, it will be about taking away federal power and returning it to the States. Some view this as the beginning of the end of the nation. I don’t, but instead that we are entering a prolonged period of one-party rule that will extend through most of this decade. One with Democrats muddles in their powers of center (the top ten big cities) and a focus on identity politics that borders on internal civil war.
On with the map and the races. The Senate page is here, and the House prediction page is here. I’ll be using the election model I wrote about for calling the close contests.
New Mexico
Lujan is below 48% and will lose. One of the worst debate performances by Grisham. This is a big upset. Compared with the betting market, this is the only contest I am askew. Its at 25% and RttW gives this only a 18% chance.
Oregon
The third-party candidate will get >10% of the vote. If less, the D may win. I went to PDX in ‘20 and ‘22. The first time downtown smelled like fresh plywood; the last time smelled like an overdose.
Kansas
Kelly is the incumbent and at 46% and the betting markets are very close here, within 5% Per the poll in KS: "President Biden holds a 59% disapproval among Kansas voters, while 33% approve of the job he is doing as president." I don’t see it holding for Kelly in KS, not in this environment.
Maine
The Democrat incumbent Mills is polling at 49% so it looks like she may squeak by, but it will be close. The betting market is showing 80% plus for the Dem due to undecideds not caring that much for LePage.
Michigan
Tudor will benefit from Whitmer being pulled down by the Democratic ticket. However, the spending discrepancy is real. Perhaps as much as 10:1. Whitmer is at 50 in the aggregate polling, so she holds on. Yuch. This is one where I’d like to be wrong, but the betting in on Whitmer at over 70%
Wisconsin
The most vital State for Republicans in the Midwest, as this is where the Republican convention is to be held in 2024. Think Colorado and Obama for 2008. The incumbent is at 47%, which will be the most significant (for 2024) pickup for the Republicans.
Arizona
I love how Lake confronts the media’s lies and control of the narrative. Poll average shows Hobbs at 47.4% and the betting is over 80% on Lake. The contest seems tighter than it should be looking at the polls.
Oklahoma
A scandal won’t turn OK blue. However, the one-party rule does breed corruption.
Hawaii - California - Colorado - Illinois - Mass
All safe, Democratic. Watch these States, though, for Presidential intentions. Particularly if Newsom gets above 60% and Polis in Colorado gets above 55%
Alaska - Idaho - Wyoming - South Dakota - Nebraska - Alaska
All safe, Republican.
Texas
Beto will lose by double-digits. Three and done, we can hope. The Democrats have big problems with Latinos (and all minorities, for that matter) over their woke cultural agenda that flies in the face of their conservative social values.
Nevada
Which leads to Nevada. A surprisingly uneven battleground State where the Republicans will sweep out the incumbent Sisolak only at 44% The Dems losing Nevada will strengthen the Republican’s Mountain regional position into ‘24.
Minnesota and Pennsylvania
Two States where the Democrats will hold at the State level. Two of the contests where abortion seems to matter a lot (in the polling). Democrats are all-in with Pennsylvania for 2024. All of their routes to the WH run through winning it.
Arkansas - Tennesse - Alabama - Georgia - S. Carolina - Florida
The entire South is out of reach for Democrats. DeSantis is riding high.
Iowa - Ohio
Not even close. The Democratic Party is becoming non-existent in Iowa. Ohio is becoming more like Indiana.
Connecticut - Rhode Island - Massachusetts - Maryland
Safe Dem. Massachusetts is the most whacked Covidien state in the nation, but it and Maryland are both pickups for the Dems.
Vermont - New Hampshire
Safe Republican. Both of these states have figured out they cannot give the D’s total control.
New York
Zeldin has run a great race. Could he win? Yes. But Hochul is at 50, so will probably win. Another one, like Michigan, I hope I am wrong. The betting has Zeldin at almost 25%, which means maybe a 5% election difference creates significant changes in the legislature —enough to create some change away from one-party rule.
This puts the Republicans at 31 seats. Their substantial majority (which means nothing) will increase in ‘23, with the States of Kentucky and Louisiana likely replacing incumbent Democrats with Republicans.
The result of a Republican tsunami election will be seen at the State legislative level. Currently, Republicans control 54.10% of all state legislative seats nationally, while Democrats hold 44.32%. 2022 will likely move this into a double-digit lead. The Republicans need control of 34 legislative bodies to call a constitutional convention. I’ll return to this after the election.