The 2022 Midterm Senate Election Predictions

52, 54 maybe 55?

I know there is a tweet (Twitter @jeromearmstrong has me politically silenced still) from the Spring where I said the Republicans would win 54 Senate seats and New Hampshire would be the 54th. Here we are. The betting markets have whiplashed to Republican control above ~70%, which makes a sweep more likely:

If you look back at past Senate during wave elections, you’ll find a common occurrence that the party in the wave nearly sweeps all of the close Senate races. It recently happened in 2006 and 2010, for example. And it will happen again in 2022. The reason this increasingly happens is that Senate races have been nationalized over local priority.
I’ve laid out the voter model I am using and will follow that pretty closely in the Senate. The Governor prediction page is here. and the House prediction page is here. I’ll cover the eight Senate races I have in the middle with a few notes too.

Washington

Prediction— this will be the last uncalled Senate race. It’s difficult to predict given VBM, but Murray is at 49.3 so she’s just above the margin. The betting market shows this just outside the 60% range too. So we have to expect Murray will beat Smiley, but this could surprise us. If it’s an upset, and Smiley wins, I will point toward VBM for the unintended consequences of making it easy for non-voters to do so. Murray was elected in ‘92 in an upset, so it’d be a fitting way to go. The debate performance by Murray was also atrocious, Jan 6th blah blah blah. This is a politician who went to Congress as a Mom in tennis shoes but now is stuck to the seat of the status quo.

Colorado

Bennet is at 49.3% He came off as very arrogant in the debate. Very thin-skinned, hence this has tightened. Odea’s “Bennet’s a do-nothing Senator” message is working, but it is probably not enough to overcome the popular Governor’s pull and the VBM already delivered to Bennet. Bennet’s a do-nothing SenatorBennet’s a do-nothing Senator

Wisconsin

Big Pharma heavily targeted Johnson. He’s at 49.4, so he looks to win. I don’t think this will be that close. The polls typically underestimate Republicans in the midwest— where the Hidden voter phenom I mentioned is a decisive factor. But this is a perfect example of those stuck in the poll margins who might think Johnson and Murray are in the same boat. They are not, given the national environment.

Nevada

Mastro is at 45.1! This may be a blowout for Rs. Democrats seem practically non-competitive in Nevada. It and Arizona benefited from the recent exodus of California in terms of republican voters. Of Ralston’s models, I choose this one: If Repubs have a 5 percent base advantage and win indies by 10, it’s 49.6-45.4 GOP. 4.2 percent, Repubs.

Pennsylvania

Fetterman is at 47. So is Oz, and the undecideds will break R. I thought Fetterman’s Steeler ad was excellent. I realize it’s an old one, but well played for the vaccine-injured guy. Too bad he’s in denial cause if he turned that into his closing campaign message (I’m going to DC to take on Big Pharma, and Oz is just another Globalist), he could have won despite his obvious cognitive issues. Populism seems to be a clothing statement by Democrats and little more.

Georgia

Warnock is under 48. I don’t believe this will go to a run-off, either. This bodes very poorly for Dems’ chances in 2024 here.

Arizona

Kelly is right at 48%, so this will be very close. I’ll go with the R’s having the momentum.

New Hampshire

Hassan is at 47.8 and won’t break 50. What a terrible debater. Buldoc seems refreshingly uncanned.

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In 2024 there are half a dozen Senate seats that Republicans could win, so getting above 60 with a Republican trifecta following the 2024 election will be their goal if the above pans out. As for the Democrats, who knows! Gavin Newsom says:

“These guys are ruthless on the other side,” he said at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. “Where are we? Where are we organizing, bottom-up, a compelling alternative narrative? Where are we going on the offense every single day? They’re winning right now.” 

He’s right about the problem. The Dems are so out of touch. I covered how this is related to their faulty social media strategy. Nothing will change until the Democrats wake up to the reality of free speech on the internet and build a place for Democrats.